· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Concord Rangers vs Witham Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Concord Rangers and 1.76 for Witham Town, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Witham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concord Rangers home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Witham Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Witham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Concord Rangers and 1.76 for Witham Town, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Concord Rangers
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winslow United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentwood Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witham Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hastings United · 4-0 (W)
Witham Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stotfold · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Concord Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heybridge Swifts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilbury · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.