· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Concordia Basel vs Zug Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Concordia Basel and 1.93 for Zug, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Concordia Basel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concordia Basel home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zug away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia Basel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Concordia Basel and 1.93 for Zug, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Concordia Basel
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 2-2 (D)
Zug
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Münsingen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Courtételle · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia Basel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Concordia Basel 4-2 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Concordia Basel 5-0 Zug (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Schötz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Concordia Basel | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Muttenz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Solothurn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Grasshopper II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Buochs | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Muri-Gümligen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Thun II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Zug | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.