· Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Concordia Lausanne vs Locarno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Concordia Lausanne and 1.49 for Locarno, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Concordia Lausanne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Concordia Lausanne win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concordia Lausanne home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Locarno away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia Lausanne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Concordia Lausanne and 1.49 for Locarno, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Concordia Lausanne
- 2025-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-08-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Azzurri · 8-0 (W)
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Signal · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III · 2-4 (L)
Locarno
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thalwil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baden · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concordia Lausanne win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.