Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Concordia and 1.33 for ASA Targu Mures, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Concordia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Concordia win

68.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.83 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Concordia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASA Targu Mures away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Concordia and 1.33 for ASA Targu Mures, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Concordia win69%

Draw16%

ASA Targu Mures win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.3%
3–17.8%
2–06.3%
3–05.9%
1–15.9%

Recent form

Concordia

2026-10-24T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chindia Targoviste · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)

ASA Targu Mures

2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Dinamo București · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Afumati · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	8	3	0	13	27
2	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
3	Chindia Targoviste	11	8	0	3	13	24
4	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	11	5	2	4	0	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Viitorul Şelimbăr	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
19	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
20	CSM Satu Mare	11	0	6	5	-8	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Concordia win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.