· Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Concordia vs Oţelul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Concordia and 1.26 for Oţelul, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Concordia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Concordia win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concordia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oţelul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Concordia and 1.26 for Oţelul, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Concordia
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Dinamo București · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Afumati · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Spartac · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metaloglobus · 3-1 (W)
Oţelul
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concordia win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.