Concordia vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Concordia and 1.33 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Concordia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Concordia win

73.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.18 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Concordia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Concordia win74%

Draw14%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

3–17.9%
2–17.4%
4–16.2%
3–05.9%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Concordia

2026-10-24T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chindia Targoviste · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-12-12T15:30:00.000Z · Concordia 1-3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga II)
2018-12-21T18:00:00.000Z · Concordia 0-3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)
2018-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Concordia 0-3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)
2018-05-07T15:00:00.000Z · Concordia 2-0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)
2018-03-10T16:00:00.000Z · Concordia 1-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)
2018-02-17T12:00:00.000Z · Concordia 1-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)
2017-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · Concordia 2-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Concordia win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.