· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Concordia vs Süderelbe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Concordia and 1.89 for Süderelbe, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Süderelbe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Süderelbe win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concordia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Süderelbe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Süderelbe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Concordia and 1.89 for Süderelbe, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Concordia
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs HT16 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Niendorfer TSV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paloma · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nikola Tesla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Norderstedt II · 4-2 (W)
Süderelbe
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T08:45:00.000Z · A vs HEBC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pinneberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Hamburg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paloma | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Victoria Hamburg | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Tus Dassendorf | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | HT16 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Niendorfer TSV | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 7 | Altona 93 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Pinneberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 9 | Sasel | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Süderelbe | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | HEBC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | ETSV Hamburg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Teutonia Ottensen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | Nikola Tesla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Concordia | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Harksheide | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 18 | Norderstedt II | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Süderelbe win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.