· Analysis updated 05:52 UTC
Condal vs Andes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Condal and 0.50 for Andes, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Condal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Condal win
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Condal home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Andes away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Condal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 20% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Condal and 0.50 for Andes, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–016.3%
- 3–010.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Condal
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceares · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Astur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Andes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gijón Industrial · 2-1 (W)
Andes
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Condal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijón Industrial · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mosconia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Condal | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Caudal | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lealtad | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | San Martín | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Praviano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gijón Industrial | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Colunga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Astur | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | L'Entregu | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Condal win, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.