· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Conegliano vs Bassano Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Conegliano and 0.96 for Bassano Virtus, a combined total of 1.61. That distribution gives Bassano Virtus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Conegliano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bassano Virtus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bassano Virtus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 24% / 35% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Conegliano and 0.96 for Bassano Virtus, a combined 1.61 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.9%
- 0–119.2%
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Conegliano
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mestre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Este · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LME · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Obermais · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cjarlins Muzane · 1-0 (W)
Bassano Virtus
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Legnago Salus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Triestina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mestre · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Sandona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Campodarsego | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Clodiense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bassano Virtus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | LME | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mestre | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Legnago Salus | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Conegliano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Obermais | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Calvi Noale | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Este | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Altavilla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Triestina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Virtus Bolzano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Schio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.