Hang Day Stadium · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Công An Nhân Dân vs Ha Noi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 0.79 for Ha Noi, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Công An Nhân Dân the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Công An Nhân Dân win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Công An Nhân Dân home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ha Noi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
Công An Nhân Dân
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bình Phước · 3-0 (W)
Ha Noi
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Da Nang · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Da Nang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 1-2 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2025-08-28T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 4-2 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2025-05-26T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 0-2 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2024-10-19T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 1-1 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2024-06-16T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 1-2 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2023-11-03T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 2-0 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2023-08-06T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 2-1 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2023-02-09T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 0-2 Ha Noi (V.League 1)
- 2023-01-14T00:00:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 4-0 Ha Noi (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-07T12:15:00.000Z · Công An Nhân Dân 0-4 Ha Noi (Cup)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Công An Nhân Dân win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.