Hang Day Stadium · Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
Công An Nhân Dân vs Thanh Hóa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 0.93 for Thanh Hóa, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Công An Nhân Dân the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Công An Nhân Dân win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Công An Nhân Dân home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thanh Hóa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Công An Nhân Dân to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 0.93 for Thanh Hóa, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
Recent form
Công An Nhân Dân
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bình Phước · 3-0 (W)
Thanh Hóa
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nam Dinh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hai Phong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Binh Duong · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phu Dong · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Phu Dong | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ha Noi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Da Nang | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Công An Nhân Dân win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.