Estadio Jalisco · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Congo DR vs Bermuda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Congo DR and 0.91 for Bermuda, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Congo DR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Congo DR win
68.1% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Congo DR home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bermuda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Congo DR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Congo DR and 0.91 for Bermuda, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Congo DR
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbabwe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Equatorial Guinea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-1 (L)
Bermuda
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Lucia · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadeloupe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Congo DR win, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.