· Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Conil vs Bollullos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Conil and 1.20 for Bollullos, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Bollullos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Conil home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bollullos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bollullos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Conil and 1.20 for Bollullos, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Conil
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)
Bollullos
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Betis C · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Central · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utrera | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | Dos Hermanas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Portuense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Betis C | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Tomares | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Pozoblanco | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Egabrense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Xerez Deportivo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Recreativo Huelva | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Ceuta II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Linense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Conil | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.