Conil vs Cádiz II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Conil and 1.01 for Cádiz II, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Cádiz II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.87 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Conil home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cádiz II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cádiz II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 30% / 32% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Conil and 1.01 for Cádiz II, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Conil win30%

Draw32%

Cádiz II win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–115.5%
0–015.3%
1–113.4%
1–013.2%
0–27.9%

Recent form

Conil

2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)

Cádiz II

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pozoblanco · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomares · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomares · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.