Conil vs Portuense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Conil and 1.77 for Portuense, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Portuense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Portuense win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.87 – 1.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Conil home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portuense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Conil and 1.77 for Portuense, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Conil win18%

Draw23%

Portuense win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.7%
0–211.2%
1–111.0%
1–29.7%
0–07.2%

Recent form

Conil

2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)

Portuense

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Portuense win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.