Morrone Stadium · Analysis updated 07:22 UTC
Connecticut FC vs Inter Miami II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.42 expected goals for Connecticut FC and 1.17 for Inter Miami II, a combined total of 4.59. That distribution gives Connecticut FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Connecticut FC win
79.4% probability
Expected goals
3.42 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Connecticut FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Connecticut FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.42 goals for Connecticut FC and 1.17 for Inter Miami II, a combined 4.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 66%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.9%
- 2–16.9%
- 4–16.8%
- 3–06.8%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
Connecticut FC
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami II · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs New York RB II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union II · 4-2 (W)
Inter Miami II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Connecticut FC win, at 79.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.