Morrone Stadium · Analysis updated 07:03 UTC
Connecticut FC vs New York RB II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Connecticut FC and 2.03 for New York RB II, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Connecticut FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Connecticut FC win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Connecticut FC home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
New York RB II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Connecticut FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Connecticut FC and 2.03 for New York RB II, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–26.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Connecticut FC
- 2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattanooga · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami II · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United II · 1-4 (L)
New York RB II
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Connecticut FC win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.