Conquense vs Getafe II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Conquense and 0.83 for Getafe II, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Conquense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Conquense win

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Conquense home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Conquense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Conquense and 0.83 for Getafe II, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Conquense win69%

Draw18%

Getafe II win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.6%
1–010.3%
2–19.7%
3–08.7%
1–18.6%

Recent form

Conquense

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 2-2 (D)

Getafe II

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Conquense win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.