· Analysis updated 14:09 UTC
Conquense vs Salamanca UDS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Conquense and 0.70 for Salamanca UDS, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Conquense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Conquense win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Conquense home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Salamanca UDS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Conquense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 31% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Conquense and 0.70 for Salamanca UDS, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 65.6% vs market 53.6%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.73 | 53.6% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.1% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.3% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.1% | 31.2% | 3.21 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.7% | 53.6% | 1.87 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.6% | 22.4% | 4.46 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 68.9% | 1.45 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.4% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Conquense
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 2-2 (D)
Salamanca UDS
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Numancia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Salamanca UDS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | CF Talavera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Valladolid II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | SS Reyes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Guadalajara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Navalcarnero | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Ávila | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Tordesillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Calvo Sotelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Albacete II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Conquense win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.