Consadole Sapporo vs Shonan Bellmare Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Consadole Sapporo and 1.22 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Shonan Bellmare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Consadole Sapporo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shonan Bellmare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shonan Bellmare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Consadole Sapporo and 1.22 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Consadole Sapporo win34%

Draw28%

Shonan Bellmare win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–111.7%
1–010.8%
0–09.6%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Consadole Sapporo

2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T05:45:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 1-0 (W)

Shonan Bellmare

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	8	3	1	12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	7	2	3	-3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	6	4	2	12	22
4	Yokohama FC	12	6	3	3	9	21
5	Omiya Ardija	12	5	5	2	7	20
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	4	7	1	2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	4	6	2	7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	4	5	3	1	17
9	Iwaki	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Fujieda MYFC	12	3	6	3	2	15
11	Jubilo Iwata	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Sagan Tosu	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Tokushima Vortis	12	4	2	6	-3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	4	2	6	-10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	4	1	7	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	3	4	5	-1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	3	3	6	-1	12
19	Imabari	12	3	2	7	-10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	3	1	8	-17	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.