Nou Camp de Inca · Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Constància vs Collerense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Constància and 0.90 for Collerense, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Constància the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Constància win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Constància home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Collerense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Constància to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Constància and 0.90 for Collerense, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Constància
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardassar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Arenal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
Collerense
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmany · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotlet Molinar · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-04-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Constància win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.