Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.38 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Coquimbo Unido win

49.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coquimbo Unido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. La Serena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Coquimbo Unido win50%

Draw22%

D. La Serena win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.4%
1–07.2%
2–06.8%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Coquimbo Unido

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)

D. La Serena

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2025-11-22T21:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-1 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2025-05-31T16:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 4-2 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2025-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-2 D. La Serena (Copa Chile)
2025-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena (Copa Chile)
2023-06-24T16:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena (Copa Chile)
2022-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-0 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2022-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena (Primera División)
2020-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-1 D. La Serena (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
7	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Coquimbo Unido win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.