Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander · Analysis updated 16:25 UTC
Coquimbo Unido vs O'Higgins Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.17 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coquimbo Unido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
O'Higgins away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coquimbo Unido to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.17 for O'Higgins, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Coquimbo Unido
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)
O'Higgins
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa De La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Colo Colo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Huachipato | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Concepción | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
| 1 | Nublense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Universidad de Concepcion | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Cobresal | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 1 | O'Higgins | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Everton de Vina | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 3 | Deportes Limache | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Palestino | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 1 | Union La Calera | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | A. Italiano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | D. La Serena | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.