Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.50 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coquimbo Unido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
U. Catolica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Coquimbo Unido win38%

Draw24%

U. Catolica win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.5%
1–07.5%

Recent form

Coquimbo Unido

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)

U. Catolica

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union La Calera · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T00:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-26T22:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2026-02-21T23:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-3 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2026-01-25T22:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-0 U. Catolica (Super Cup)
2025-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 3-0 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2025-02-22T21:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2024-11-09T21:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-1 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2024-06-03T00:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-0 U. Catolica (Primera División)
2024-03-05T22:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-0 U. Catolica (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2024-01-24T23:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-1 U. Catolica (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-23T22:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	16	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	12	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	3	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	8	33
7	Nublense	23	8	8	7	-3	32
8	Concepción	23	9	4	10	-1	31
9	D. La Serena	23	7	9	7	-4	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	22	8	5	9	0	29
11	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
12	Huachipato	22	8	4	10	-8	28
13	O'Higgins	23	8	3	12	-8	27
14	Cobresal	23	7	3	13	-10	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	6	4	13	-22	22
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	-21	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.