Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso · Analysis updated 14:00 UTC
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.08 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Coquimbo Unido win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coquimbo Unido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union La Calera away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Coquimbo Unido
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)
Union La Calera
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs U. Catolica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Union La Calera (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-07-08T23:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Union La Calera (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-04-24T22:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Union La Calera (Primera División)
- 2025-11-02T20:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-0 Union La Calera (Primera División)
- 2025-07-02T19:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Union La Calera (Copa Chile)
- 2025-06-08T21:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Union La Calera (Copa Chile)
- 2025-05-17T00:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Union La Calera (Primera División)
- 2024-11-02T21:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-0 Union La Calera (Primera División)
- 2024-05-24T23:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Union La Calera (Primera División)
- 2023-12-01T23:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-2 Union La Calera (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coquimbo Unido win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.