Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso · Referee M. Salvo · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.88 for Universidad de Concepcion, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Coquimbo Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coquimbo Unido win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coquimbo Unido home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad de Concepcion away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.0% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 41.3% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.77 | 51.1% | 52.0% | 1.92 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.4% | 19.0% | 5.26 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 51.7% | 51.9% | 1.93 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.61 | 57.1% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 48.3% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 76.9% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.5% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 48.9% | 48.0% | 2.08 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 81.8% | 80.9% | 1.24 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.35 | 28.0% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Coquimbo Unido
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)
Universidad de Concepcion
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T18:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2021-09-16T23:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera B)
- 2021-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera B)
- 2021-02-07T20:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 1-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2020-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 0-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2019-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · Coquimbo Unido 2-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coquimbo Unido win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.