· Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Córdoba II vs Ceuta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Córdoba II and 1.65 for Ceuta II, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Ceuta II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Córdoba II home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ceuta II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ceuta II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Córdoba II and 1.65 for Ceuta II, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Córdoba II
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pozoblanco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomares · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 0-0 (D)
Ceuta II
- 2026-10-24T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrera · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomares · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.