· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Cordoba vs Almeria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cordoba and 0.90 for Almeria, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cordoba home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almeria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cordoba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 32% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Cordoba and 0.90 for Almeria, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–015.0%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Cordoba
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 1-3 (L)
Almeria
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.