Estadio Guadalquivir · Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Coria CF vs Ceuta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Coria CF and 1.40 for Ceuta II, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Ceuta II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ceuta II win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coria CF home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ceuta II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Coria CF
- 2026-05-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Castilleja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomares · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 1-1 (D)
Ceuta II
- 2026-10-24T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrera · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomares · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 0-2 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2025-12-20T16:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 0-2 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2025-02-01T12:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 0-1 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2024-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 1-1 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2024-04-27T15:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 0-5 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2023-12-06T12:30:00.000Z · Coria CF 2-2 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2023-03-25T16:00:00.000Z · Coria CF 1-2 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
- 2022-12-03T17:00:00.000Z · Coria CF 2-0 Ceuta II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Tomares | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Portuense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Betis C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | San Roque Lepe | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Pozoblanco | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Conil | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Sevilla III | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Bollullos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ceuta II win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.