Stadio Comunale Daniele Grandi · Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Coriano vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Coriano and 1.38 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Desenzano Calvina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Desenzano Calvina win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coriano home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desenzano Calvina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Desenzano Calvina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 20% / 28% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Coriano and 1.38 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Coriano
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arconatese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontedera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 0-0 (D)
Desenzano Calvina
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · Coriano 0-1 Desenzano Calvina (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2025-11-16T13:30:00.000Z · Coriano 0-2 Desenzano Calvina (Serie D - Girone D)
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Desenzano Calvina win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.