· Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Corinthians U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Corinthians U20 and 0.99 for Ferroviária U20, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Corinthians U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Corinthians U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Corinthians U20 and 0.99 for Ferroviária U20, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–112.9%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Corinthians U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense U20 · 4-0 (W)
Ferroviária U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.