Corinthians U20 vs Vitória U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Corinthians U20 and 0.93 for Vitória U20, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Corinthians U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Corinthians U20 win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Corinthians U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitória U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Corinthians U20 and 0.93 for Vitória U20, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Corinthians U20 win59%

Draw22%

Vitória U20 win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.4%
2–010.6%
1–110.6%
2–19.9%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Corinthians U20

2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense U20 · 4-0 (W)

Vitória U20

2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense de Feira U20 · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense de Feira U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona BA U20 · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona BA U20 · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasileiro U20 A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras U20	19	13	5	1	31	44
2	Vasco da Gama U20	19	11	3	5	17	36
3	Botafogo U20	19	11	3	5	12	36
4	RB Bragantino U20	19	10	4	5	14	34
5	Athletico PR U20	19	9	5	5	14	32
6	Santos U20	19	9	4	6	5	31
7	Cruzeiro U20	19	8	5	6	8	29
8	Corinthians U20	19	8	5	6	6	29
9	Bahia U20	19	8	5	6	2	29
10	Flamengo U20	19	7	7	5	-1	28
11	São Paulo U20	19	6	7	6	1	25
12	América Mineiro U20	19	6	7	6	-12	25
13	Cuiabá U20	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Vitória U20	19	5	5	9	-11	20
15	Fluminense U20	19	5	4	10	-6	19
16	Grêmio U20	19	6	1	12	-11	19
17	Juventude U20	19	5	3	11	-19	18
18	Criciuma U20	19	5	2	12	-16	17
19	Avaí U20	19	3	7	9	-19	16
20	Fortaleza U20	19	2	9	8	-7	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Corinthians U20 win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.