· Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
Coritiba U20 vs Patriotas U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Coritiba U20 and 0.76 for Patriotas U20, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Coritiba U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coritiba U20 win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Patriotas U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coritiba U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Coritiba U20 and 0.76 for Patriotas U20, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Coritiba U20
Patriotas U20
- 2026-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Araucaria U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Araucaria U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs City London U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs City London U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 0-0 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 1-1 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2026-04-25T18:30:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 1-2 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2025-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 1-3 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2024-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 1-2 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2024-07-21T18:00:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 2-0 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
- 2024-04-20T18:30:00.000Z · Coritiba U20 2-1 Patriotas U20 (Paranaense U20)
Paranaense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coritiba U20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Athletico PR U20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Cascavel U20 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | City London U20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Operário PR U20 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Galo Maringá U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Araucaria U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Patriotas U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Parana Clube U20 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | CE União U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Hope Internacional U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Cianorte U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coritiba U20 win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.