· Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Cork City vs Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cork City and 1.68 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Cork City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cork City home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cardiff away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cork City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Cork City and 1.68 for Cardiff, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Cork City
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wexford · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Treaty United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 3-0 (W)
Cardiff
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.