Cork City vs Wexford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Cork City and 1.23 for Wexford, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Cork City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cork City win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cork City home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wexford away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cork City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Cork City and 1.23 for Wexford, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cork City win59%

Draw20%

Wexford win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.0%
2–07.9%
1–07.4%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Cork City

2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wexford · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Treaty United · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 3-0 (W)

Wexford

2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cork City · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bray Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cobh Ramblers · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	35	23	5	7	39	74
2	Bray Wanderers	35	15	9	11	16	54
3	UCD	35	15	8	12	13	53
4	Kerry	35	14	9	12	4	51
5	Longford Town	35	13	10	12	2	49
6	Cobh Ramblers	35	14	7	14	-6	49
7	Athlone Town	35	13	9	13	0	48
8	Wexford	35	11	9	15	-11	42
9	Treaty United	35	10	9	16	-18	39
10	Finn Harps	35	6	7	22	-39	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cork City win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.