Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu · Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Çorluspor 1947 vs İnkılapspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Çorluspor 1947 and 0.87 for İnkılapspor, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Çorluspor 1947 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Çorluspor 1947 win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Çorluspor 1947 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
İnkılapspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Çorluspor 1947 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Çorluspor 1947 and 0.87 for İnkılapspor, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Çorluspor 1947
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 3-2 (W)
İnkılapspor
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Edirnespor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Çankaya FK · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Galata | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Orduspor 1967 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | İnkılapspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Düzcespor | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Beykoz Anadolu | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Çorluspor 1947 win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.