Nou Municipal de Cornella · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Cornellà vs Lleida Esportiu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cornellà and 0.73 for Lleida Esportiu, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Cornellà the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cornellà win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cornellà home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lleida Esportiu away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Cornellà
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobla Mafumet · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Hospitalet · 0-0 (D)
Lleida Esportiu
- 2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T10:30:00.000Z · Cornellà 2-1 Lleida Esportiu (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · Cornellà 1-1 Lleida Esportiu (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-01-26T17:00:00.000Z · Cornellà 1-1 Lleida Esportiu (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2024-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · Cornellà 0-1 Lleida Esportiu (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-02-21T17:30:00.000Z · Cornellà 0-1 Lleida Esportiu (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2020-11-21T16:00:00.000Z · Cornellà 3-2 Lleida Esportiu (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2019-12-15T19:00:00.000Z · Cornellà 1-0 Lleida Esportiu (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Badalona | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Cornellà | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tona | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Peralada | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cornellà win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.