· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Corona Braşov vs Carpati Covasna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Corona Braşov and 0.39 for Carpati Covasna, a combined total of 4.89. That distribution gives Corona Braşov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Corona Braşov win
96.3% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Corona Braşov home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corona Braşov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Corona Braşov and 0.39 for Carpati Covasna, a combined 4.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 31%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
4%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–012.9%
- 5–011.6%
- 3–011.5%
- 6–08.7%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Corona Braşov
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carpati Covasna · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ACS Mediaş 2022 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baicoi · 1-1 (D)
Carpati Covasna
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenii de Munte · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Corona Braşov win, at 96.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.