· Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Correlhã vs Torreense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Correlhã and 1.39 for Torreense, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Correlhã the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Correlhã home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Correlhã to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Correlhã and 1.39 for Torreense, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Correlhã
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Limianos · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Valpaços · 2-0 (W)
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.