· Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Cortes vs Mutilvera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.40 expected goals for Cortes and 1.35 for Mutilvera, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Mutilvera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mutilvera win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
0.40 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cortes home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mutilvera away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mutilvera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 11% / 28% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.40 goals for Cortes and 1.35 for Mutilvera, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–123.5%
- 0–017.4%
- 0–215.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–37.1%
Recent form
Cortes
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs San Juan · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 0-0 (D)
Mutilvera
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazte Berriak · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Gazte Berriak | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Aoiz | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Subiza | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | San Juan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Huarte | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cortes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Bidezarra | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Cantolagua | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mutilvera win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.