Estadio San Francisco Javier · Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Cortes vs San Juan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Cortes and 1.74 for San Juan, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives San Juan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Juan win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
0.72 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cortes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Juan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Juan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 15% / 23% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Cortes and 1.74 for San Juan, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Cortes
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-1 (L)
San Juan
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Subiza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Onak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Txantrea · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Juan win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.