· Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Coruña vs Viveiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Coruña and 0.91 for Viveiro, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Coruña the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coruña win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coruña home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viveiro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coruña to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Coruña and 0.91 for Viveiro, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Coruña
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Somozas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo III · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alondras · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Viveiro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estradense · 1-3 (L)
Viveiro
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarriana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Antela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alondras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Estradense · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coruña win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.