Coruxo vs Gernika Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Coruxo and 1.63 for Gernika, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Gernika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gernika win

49.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coruxo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gernika away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gernika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Coruxo and 1.63 for Gernika, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Coruxo win26%

Draw25%

Gernika win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–110.4%
1–29.5%
0–28.5%
1–07.2%

Recent form

Coruxo

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 2-0 (W)

Gernika

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gernika win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.