· Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Cosmos vs Juvenes / Dogana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Cosmos and 1.00 for Juvenes / Dogana, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Cosmos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cosmos win
67.0% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cosmos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juvenes / Dogana away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cosmos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Cosmos and 1.00 for Juvenes / Dogana, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Cosmos
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Murata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pennarossa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
Juvenes / Dogana
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Folgore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Virtus | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Libertas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Cailungo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | San Giovanni | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Murata | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 | Juvenes / Dogana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Faetano | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 16 | San Marino Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cosmos win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.