Estadio Nuevo Pacaembu · Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Costa Brava vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Costa Brava and 0.70 for Deportivo Rincon, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Costa Brava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Costa Brava win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Brava home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Rincon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Costa Brava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 30% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Costa Brava and 0.70 for Deportivo Rincon, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–110.0%
Recent form
Costa Brava
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Mitre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-1 (D)
Deportivo Rincon
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · Costa Brava 0-1 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 0-1 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 1-2 Deportivo Rincon (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Costa Brava win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.