Estadio Nuevo Pacaembu · Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Costa Brava vs Guillermo Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Costa Brava and 0.80 for Guillermo Brown, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Costa Brava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Brava home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guillermo Brown away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Costa Brava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Costa Brava and 0.80 for Guillermo Brown, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Costa Brava
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Mitre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-1 (D)
Guillermo Brown
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.