Estadio Nuevo Pacaembu · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Costa Brava and 0.65 for Juventud Unida Univ., a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Costa Brava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Brava home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juventud Unida Univ. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–018.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Costa Brava
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Mitre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-1 (D)
Juventud Unida Univ.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 1-2 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 0-0 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-04T21:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 1-1 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-18T18:45:00.000Z · Costa Brava 1-1 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-03-15T23:00:00.000Z · Costa Brava 1-1 Juventud Unida Univ. (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.