AT&T Stadium · Referee Lukasz Szpala · Analysis updated 17:19 UTC
Costa Rica vs Dominican Republic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Costa Rica and 2.50 for Dominican Republic, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Costa Rica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Costa Rica win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Rica home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dominican Republic away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Costa Rica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 16% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Costa Rica and 2.50 for Dominican Republic, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.5%
- 4–24.8%
- 2–24.7%
- 3–34.6%
- 3–14.4%
Recent form
Costa Rica
- 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Curaçao · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
Dominican Republic
- 2026-10-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Nicaragua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-04T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Gold Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Costa Rica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Suriname | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Honduras | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 3 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Panama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Guatemala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Jamaica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 2 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Costa Rica win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.