Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Costa Rica vs Honduras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Costa Rica and 0.84 for Honduras, a combined total of 1.71. That distribution gives Costa Rica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Rica home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Honduras away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.2%
- 1–015.8%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Costa Rica
- 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Curaçao · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
Honduras
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamaica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Suriname · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peru · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2025-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2024-03-23T23:15:00.000Z · Costa Rica 3-1 Honduras (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2021-11-17T01:05:00.000Z · Costa Rica 2-1 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2021-10-08T00:05:00.000Z · Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2021-06-06T22:30:00.000Z · Costa Rica 2-2 Honduras (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2017-10-08T00:00:00.000Z · Costa Rica 1-1 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2017-07-08T01:00:00.000Z · Costa Rica 1-0 Honduras (CONCACAF Gold Cup)
- 2017-03-28T22:00:00.000Z · Costa Rica 1-1 Honduras (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2017-01-20T23:30:00.000Z · Costa Rica 1-1 Honduras (Copa Centroamericana)
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.