Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica · Referee Ismael Cornejo, El Salvador · Analysis updated 02:47 UTC
Costa Rica vs Nicaragua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Costa Rica and 0.76 for Nicaragua, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Costa Rica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Costa Rica win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Costa Rica home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nicaragua away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Costa Rica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Costa Rica and 0.76 for Nicaragua, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Costa Rica
- 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Curaçao · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
Nicaragua
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Curaçao · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-05T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Costa Rica win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.